Warning Signs for Senate Republicans

The latest fundraising data and Morning Consult tracking poll show significant warning signs that the Republican Senate majority is on shaky ground. In fact, four GOP senators in must-win states raised less than their Democrat challengers. To make matters worse, the tracking poll showed that all four senators were viewed unfavorably by their constituents. Key highlights: 

  • North Carolina incumbent Thom Tillis recorded the lowest approval rating of any sitting senator at 33 percent. Tillis raised only $1.2 million in Q3. 
  • Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa failed to break the million-dollar mark. In fact, Ernst was beaten by Theresa Greenfield, a political outsider who raised $1.1 million despite facing a contested Democratic primary and refusing corporate PAC money. 
  • In Arizona, Martha McSally’s campaign continued to lag challenger Mark Kelly (by nearly $4 million!). McSally also trails Kelly by five points in a recent poll
  • Democrat challenger and current Maine State House Speaker Sara Gideon raised an eyeopening $3.2 million in the third quarter beating incumbent Susan Collins by more than a million dollars. Morning Consult also reported Collins’ approval rating at 43 percent.

Yes, the 2020 election is a year away (and money isn’t everything in an election), but it’s clear that momentum is not on the Republican side.